Paresh Goswami Predicts New Rain Round After Long Break: So far, Gujarat has received around 46% of its normal monsoon rainfall in 2025. The last good spell of rain occurred on July 19, 20, and 21, bringing moderate to heavy showers across various parts of the state. However, since July 22, rainfall activity has reduced significantly, with only scattered showers being recorded.
The main reason for the reduced rainfall is low moisture availability at the 700 hPa level, leading to weak rain activity across the state.
Paresh Goswami’s Weather Prediction
Weather expert Paresh Goswami has predicted that a new round of rainfall is likely soon. Currently, a rain-bearing system is becoming active in the Bay of Bengal, which is expected to strengthen in the next 24 to 36 hours and move westward.
At present, the system is in the form of a cyclonic circulation, but it may later intensify into a well-marked low-pressure area or even a depression.
Heavy Rain Likely Between July 27 and 31
If there is no change in the track of the system, Gujarat may witness good rainfall between July 27 and 31, 2025. However, once the system reaches Madhya Pradesh, it might weaken again.
Its impact over Gujarat will likely be in the form of cyclonic circulation or low-pressure area, leading to widespread moderate to heavy showers in many districts.
Rainfall Break Expected from August 2 to 15
After this spell, there could be a long dry phase between August 2 and 15.
Most of the rain-bearing systems so far have formed in the Bay of Bengal, while the Arabian Sea has remained inactive for a long time. There is also a chance that the track of Bay of Bengal systems may change in the coming days.
When Will the Next Heavy Rain Round Arrive?
Paresh Goswami says that if the Bay of Bengal turns inactive in early August, the Arabian Sea may become active.
If this happens, from August 15 onwards, systems may start forming in the Arabian Sea similar to the current Bay of Bengal pattern.
This could lead to very good rainfall across Gujarat from August 15 to September 30, even better than the rains received in June and July.
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