Gold prices in India expected to fall below 1 lakh: There is major news for gold investors. According to market experts, gold prices in India could fall below ₹1 lakh per 10 grams by the end of 2027. In the international market, prices may decline toward $3,000 per ounce. Estimates suggest that domestic gold prices could move in the range of ₹90,000 to ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams over the next two years.
In 2025, gold delivered strong returns and continued its upward trend in January 2026. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold reached a record high of ₹1,80,779 per 10 grams. However, last Friday it closed at ₹1,56,200 per 10 grams, marking a sharp correction of nearly ₹24,500 or 13.5 percent from its peak.
Similarly, in the international market, COMEX gold fell from its record high of $5,626.80 per ounce to around $5,046.30 per ounce, reflecting a correction of more than 10 percent.
Russia’s Possible Return to Dollar Trade
A report by Bloomberg citing Russian documents suggests that the Kremlin is exploring economic partnerships with the United States, potentially returning to dollar-denominated trade settlements. This development could significantly impact BRICS nations’ de-dollarization efforts.
According to Amit Goyal, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, reports indicate that Russia may consider trade deals in US dollars, especially if negotiations around the Russia-Ukraine conflict progress. Although Moscow has not officially confirmed the move, the absence of denial has raised speculation in financial markets.
If Russia shifts back to dollar-based trade, it could weaken the BRICS strategy of reducing dependence on the US dollar through gold accumulation.
Central Bank Buying Drove Gold Rally
SEBI-registered market expert Anuj Gupta highlighted that aggressive central bank buying has been one of the main drivers behind gold’s sharp rally. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, global central banks reportedly increased gold purchases as a hedge against tariff risks and geopolitical uncertainty.
Between 2020 and 2024, BRICS central banks accounted for more than 50 percent of global gold purchases. Countries like China and Russia led this strategy, significantly boosting gold reserves while limiting exports.
However, if global central banks slow down or stop buying gold, experts believe prices could face significant downward pressure. There is also a possibility of gold sales in open markets, which could increase supply and further weaken prices.
BRICS Strategy and Global Gold Supply
The BRICS bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — holds a substantial share of global gold reserves and accounts for nearly 50 percent of global gold production. China produced 380 tonnes of gold in 2024, while Russia contributed around 340 tonnes.
BRICS economies represent roughly 30 percent of global trade, giving them considerable financial influence. A reversal in Russia’s stance on dollar trade could disrupt long-standing de-dollarization objectives and reshape gold demand dynamics.
Could Government Bonds Replace Gold as a Safe Haven?
Amid rising US inflation data in January 2026 and concerns about economic slowdown, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March have weakened. The US Dollar Index, which previously touched 110, has slipped below 100.
Experts suggest that during periods of economic uncertainty, long-term government bonds may outperform gold as a safe-haven asset. Drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, analysts believe 30-year or even 40-year government bonds could attract conservative investors seeking stability.
How Much More Can Gold Fall?
Amit Goyal believes gold has already seen its structural peak at $5,626.80 per ounce globally and ₹1,80,779 per 10 grams in India. If de-dollarization momentum slows and central banks begin selling, gold prices could witness further corrections.
By the end of 2027, Indian gold prices may fall below ₹1 lakh per 10 grams, potentially trading between ₹90,000 and ₹1,00,000. Internationally, prices could move toward $3,000 per ounce.
However, experts caution that the decline may not be linear. Temporary rebounds, often called “dead-cat bounces,” may occur before any sustained downward trend.
Investment Disclaimer
Investments in gold and commodities are subject to market risks. Investors are advised to consult financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
Stay updated for the latest gold price news, MCX updates, BRICS economic developments, and global commodity market trends.
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