Heavy Rains Predicted from August 15: After several days of dry weather, Gujarat is expected to witness a revival of monsoon rains in the coming days. A strong upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over the central Bay of Bengal, which is likely to intensify into a low-pressure area. This system could strengthen further into a well-marked low-pressure system, significantly increasing the chances of heavy to very heavy rainfall across the state.
IMD Weather Forecast – Heavy Rain Alert
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), an upper air cyclonic circulation is currently persisting over the central Bay of Bengal at 3.1 km to 5.8 km above mean sea level. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to develop over the west-central and northwest Bay of Bengal by August 13. This system is likely to intensify further within the next 48 hours.
Moist winds from the Bay of Bengal will gradually move through Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh before reaching Gujarat, bringing widespread rainfall. The forecast suggests heavy to very heavy rains in multiple districts.
Rainfall Expected from August 15
Weather models indicate that the system could start impacting Gujarat from August 15. Thunderstorms with light to moderate rainfall may begin in some parts of the state, followed by intense rainfall from August 16—coinciding with the Janmashtami festival.
Districts in South Gujarat, Central Gujarat, and Saurashtra are likely to witness extremely heavy downpours, potentially leading to waterlogging and flooding in low-lying areas.
Prolonged Wet Spell from August 16 to 23
Forecasts suggest that the Arabian Sea may also become active alongside this Bay of Bengal system, enhancing rainfall intensity. Multiple weather models predict widespread heavy rains from August 16 to 23 across Gujarat.
Interestingly, as soon as the impact of this system begins to weaken, another system is projected to form along a similar track, possibly extending the wet spell.
Expert Insight – Paresh Goswami’s Prediction
Weather expert Paresh Goswami confirms that the system over the Bay of Bengal started developing on August 12 and will be fully formed by the evening of August 13, after which it will begin moving towards Gujarat. He predicts that this system will intensely affect South Gujarat and Saurashtra with continuous heavy rainfall between August 16 and 24.
He further adds that there is no threat of the system dissipating or diverting away from Gujarat, making a strong rain event almost certain.
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