New Round of Rain Likely in Gujarat From August 15: According to the latest forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Gujarat is currently experiencing light showers in scattered areas. In the past 24 hours, rainfall was recorded in 84 talukas, but none of them received more than 1 inch of rain. However, well-known weather expert Ambalal Patel has predicted a new monsoon activation from August 15, bringing relief for farmers across the state.
Ambalal Patel’s Rain Forecast for Gujarat
Ambalal Patel stated that monsoon conditions will reactivate across the country from August 15, marking the end of the ongoing “break monsoon” phase. The forecast is particularly encouraging for Saurashtra region farmers, who have been eagerly waiting for good rainfall.
- A cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea is likely to develop, which may lead to increased rainfall.
- Between August 19 and 22, heavy rainfall is likely in South Saurashtra – including Bhavnagar, Mahuva, Una, and surrounding areas.
- From August 6 to August 12, intermittent rain showers are expected to increase.
- Rainfall activity will gradually intensify from mid-August.
Rain from August 20 – Strong System from Bay of Bengal
Ambalal Patel also mentioned that around August 17, a strong weather system will form over the Bay of Bengal, with a probable path toward Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. If conditions are favorable, this system could develop into a deep depression, triggering widespread and intense rainfall.
- From August 20 until the end of the month, many regions in Gujarat are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rain.
- Affected regions may include:
- Central Gujarat: Vadodara
- South Gujarat: Navsari, Surat, Ahwa, Valsad, Dang
- Saurashtra and South Saurashtra: Including surrounding areas
- Other parts: Saputara, Bharuch, Jambusar, Ankleshwar, Mahisagar, Panchmahal
- North Gujarat & Kutch: Including parts of Sabarkantha and Northern Saurashtra
When Will Monsoon Resume in Gujarat?
Patel further explained that by August 13-14, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will enter Phase 2, which is highly supportive of enhanced monsoon activity over India.
- This pattern will lead to strong monsoon currents, increasing the possibility of flood-like conditions in rivers in some regions.
- Importantly for farmers:
- Rainfall post-August 17 will be beneficial for standing crops.
- Heavy rainfall after August 20, however, may cause damage if not managed properly.
Summary: Upcoming Rain Outlook in Gujarat
| Date Range | Weather Prediction |
|---|---|
| August 6–12 | Intermittent rainfall increases |
| August 13–14 | MJO activation supports monsoon reactivation |
| August 15 onwards | Monsoon reactivates across Gujarat and other regions |
| August 17 | System likely to form over Bay of Bengal |
| August 19–22 | Heavy rainfall in South Saurashtra and adjoining areas |
| August 20–31 | Widespread heavy to very heavy rain across the state |
For Farmers:
This upcoming rain spell is crucial for agriculture. While mid-August rains will support crop growth, excessive rain post-August 20 must be monitored to prevent waterlogging and crop loss.
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