Ambalal Patel Agahi June: enior weather forecaster Ambalal Patel has issued a high-alert warning for Gujarat as the southwest monsoon is set to intensify significantly. According to his latest forecast, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in several districts of Gujarat from June 22 to June 28, 2025. This important weather update comes at a time when the region is gearing up for one of the most active phases of the monsoon.
Ambalal Patel’s rain forecast
Ambalal Patel’s forecast outlines a sharp change in atmospheric conditions after June 21, signaling the arrival of powerful monsoon flows in Gujarat. Here is the regional rainfall forecast timeline:
June 22-24: Early monsoon is likely to increase in South Gujarat, especially affecting Valsad, Navsari, Dang, Tapi and Surat districts with moderate to heavy rainfall.
June 25-26: The intensity of monsoon clouds and wind currents will spread heavy rains towards Saurashtra and central Gujarat, including Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Junagadh, Jamnagar and Ahmedabad.
June 27-28: The monsoon system will peak with heavy rainfall in some parts of North Gujarat, especially Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Mehsana and Patan.
This extensive coverage underscores the imminent threat of waterlogging, flash flooding, and transportation disruptions in several regions.
Meteorological reasons behind torrential rains
Ambalal Patel attributes this increase to a strong cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea and an active monsoon trough line intersecting the southern corridor of Gujarat . The following weather patterns are in play:
Flow from the Arabian Sea: Moisture-laden southwesterly winds are rushing towards the Gujarat coast.
Upper-air cyclonic disturbance: Persistent at 5.8 km above sea level over Kutch region.
Changes in ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone): Direct position over western India, causing more intense rain clouds.
These interacting systems are converging to create what is described as an “explosive monsoon pulse” over Gujarat.
Ambalal Patel’s weather insight: What sets this forecast apart
Unlike standard weather updates, Patel’s forecasts stem from decades of tracking climate patterns specific to Gujarat. His forecasting methodology includes:
- Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies
- Synoptic-scale analysis of monsoon flows
- Statistical modeling using past monsoon anomalies
They warn that after June 24, there could be lightning strikes, strong winds (up to 60 km/h) and even heavy rain in a short period of time, making it one of the most dangerous weather weeks of 2025 so far.
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Conclusion: Urgent attention required
With monsoon activity set to increase after June 21, residents of Gujarat should brace themselves for a week of unstable and potentially hazardous weather. Continuous monitoring of IMD updates, local warnings and Ambalal Patel’s insights will be crucial for safety.
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